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Oklahomans 3, Oklahoma Sooners 0
And we still haven’t seen the full impact of the Winter Weather on OU.
Oklahoma had some favorable weather the past three weeks on which to base their offense. As their offensive scheme has evolved, Oklahoma’s utilization of the weather-induced discrepancy between strengths and weaknesses has become more and more apparent.
As noted by many of the high-profile pundits and prognosticators, Oklahoma’s offense has done well to take advantage of Oklahoma’s defense while limiting the impact of OU’s offensive line. Their high percentage of 3rd down conversions is the main reason they’ve been able to win as many games as they have. The Sooners got that 3rd down conversion rate up to 11.7% of possessions.
But how does that benefit them in the long run? They’re winning games. They’re frequently settling for field goals and getting into their own territory on long drives. How does that benefit them? How can they sustain that offensive rate if they’re merely scoring themselves into an average of the end zone?
As is the case with any type of unsustainable success, these drives will inevitably come to an end. Currently, the Sooners are 8-0 when they are in the red zone on 3rd down. The Sooners are currently 21-30 (.417) when they are in the red zone on 4th down or greater, so the effectiveness of drives that are still moving is less than it seems. The Sooners also have a leaky defense, so allowing for that leaky defense, the Sooners are still 2-3 in the Red Zone on 4th down or more, so the effectiveness of their drives in those situations is less than it seems.
You don’t have to have a keen knowledge of the Sooners to know that their offense has not been outstanding this season. Sure, 12 wins might be considered an impressive victory, but can those wins continue if/when Oklahoma has to rely more heavily on their defense to close out opponents?
Predicting the regression of high-percentage possessions is difficult, but nobody is blaming the Sooners for their success. Everyone is looking at the offensive line and talking about how that’s holding them back.
But if we